In The War on Truth, a New Weapon
“Falsehood flies, and the truth comes limping after it,” wrote Jonathan Swift in 1710. Variations of the saying, including the punchier...
Six Strategies for Avoiding the Truth
Are you lying to yourself every day? Depends: are you a "Bayesian Updater?" Hopefully you are. The term is named after Reverend Thomas...
The Rise and Fall of Caleb Weatherbee, or Punditry, Prognosticators, and Poblano
So imagine it’s 1826 and you want to know what the weather will be doing tomorrow. You really have one choice: pull out your trusty...
Coin Flips, Constipation, and Presidential Politics
You flip a coin three times in a row. All three times, it comes up heads. How do you predict the next toss would land? The pessimist will...
